今天我们讨论的问题是数字化和新技术是如何改变银行业务模式的。Roy Charles Amara是一名研究员和科学家。他曾经说过：“我们高估了科技的短期效应而低估科技的长期效应”。互联网是一个很典型的例子。没有人可以否认互联网已经走进了我们的日常生活。互联网从根本上改变我们沟通和处理信息的方式。
金融创新改变市场基础设施服务
互联网，手机和平板电脑改变了我们的沟通方式、购物方式以及存储信息的方式。总而言之，互联网互联网改变了我们的生活方式。金融业正经历着相同的变化。我们称它为FinTech——创新可能导致新的商业模式或对金融行业上的产品产生本质性的颠覆。DLT是FinTech焦点，因为他是市场参与者、基础设施提供商和中央银行探索技术的核心。
对于DLT，我们需要牢记，DLT的对金融市场的影响是由市场参与者最终决定的。抽象而言DLT技术可以用于以下三个场景：第一，个人市场参与者尝试使用DLT提高内部效率。这将不会对金融生态产生较大的影响；第二，一个核心的市场主体采用DLT技术从而使整个世界的市场都转向DLT技术；第三，在一个革命性的变革中使得点对点业务中不再出现。很多人都希望DLT能把我们带到第三个场景，但从我们的观察，DLT对现实的影响似乎主要集中在第一和第二场景。
没有人会去怀疑的技术的变革已经产生。但从今天的角度来看，DLT框架可能对财务部门产生深刻的影响。一些人预测DLT在未来五到十年可能会对金融行业产生重大影响，但我并不赞同。请允许我强调DLT实施环境可能是还需要多方面的努力。从Target2证券实施取得的经验我们知道，中央银行对于功能、业务、协调、治理、法律和监管方面的关联问题是需要深入考虑。
欧洲央行拥抱金融市场基础设施的变化
对技术创新的探索是欧洲央行的战略议程上的制高点。欧洲央行一直在寻找提高效率和降低市场基础设施成本的方法。其中最重要的就是如何最好地应对和利用技术创新，在满足新的用户需求的同时稳定不断变化的风险，如网络风险。我们的工作是与市场密切合作，并围绕市场流动性管理，让支付转让、证券结算和抵押品管理等工作更加有效。
让我用两个例子说明欧洲央行是如何拥抱技术变化。去年欧元体系，包括欧洲央行和欧元区各国的中央银行推出了中央银行服务，称之为TARGET2证券（T2S）。就像DLT一样，它被称之为制定了“游戏规则”。T2S对欧洲交易的影响不仅体现在他能为证券交易提供了一个集成的结算服务，还体现为它带来的交易后协调是前所未有的。在T2S技术的帮助下，T2S构建了欧元现金转移系统的基石。
我的第二个例子是关于未来欧元市场基础设施的战略思考。在以下三个关键领域的工作已经启动：第一，对Target2和T2S合并；第二，建立支持即时支付的服务；第三，建立一个欧元抵押品管理系统。这三个领域的工作是紧密联系在一起的。它围绕支付转让领域的流动性管理而展开，因为证券结算体系的抵押品管理有着更高的效率。效率和创新是未来市场基础设施的驱动程序。
中央银行将DLT运用于基础设施市场
目前欧洲央行已经在考虑开发一系列的DLT模型。这和一般的开发规模并不相同，包括更新验证方式、网络架构和权限，实现数据共享和数据的复制，以及用于确保完整性的加密工具集。而更具有有实质性的功能的运作需要经过法律等方面的仔细均衡，只有这样才能考虑将其大规模的采用在市场基础设施服务领域。的确，DLT作为一个技术仍处于相对初级阶段，我们并不是很有把握认为它将改变整个金融行业。
结论
新技术将对金融市场产生深远的影响。但更重要的是，这些技术需要进行了探索，分析和测试。这不仅是为了确保明天的市场基础设施更加有效和创新的，更是为了保持市场基础设施的安全和弹性。探索犹如DLT等的高新技术是欧洲央行的至高目标。
最后,让我总结一下几个关键点:
欧洲央行认为新技术是提高我们的市场基础设施效率的关键。然而我认为潜在的DLT领域对于市场基础设施的建设问题应该围绕着两个基本概念展开:
首先,中央银行结算服务是否可以在DLT环境运行?今天,DLT并不准备大规模采用，因为DLT运用于我们的中央银行基础设施(考虑到高安全性和效率的要求)还不够成熟。将来DLT的使用还需要探索,这是基于我们目前所做的探索所考虑。随着新技术不断的扩展,我们决定与日本央行合作,探索中央银行未来使用DLT服务的前景
。
第二,中央银行与基于DLT结算服务的端口进行互动和操作是取决于中央银行的吗?例如,它是否需要“中央银行注入和控制中央银行发行的货币以支持DLT环境”。还是说私营部门可以确保流传在基于DLT技术的数值是完全由中央银行所决定。这些概念都有可能改变现有的中央银行作为运营商的地位以及货币政策的实施。但是,无论如何欧元体系将是必需的。
我们在从根本上改变金融系统的旅途中。目前欧洲央行已经开始了这段旅途。
原文：
Introduction
Today’s discussions have revolved around digitalisation and new technologies and how they might change the banking business of tomorrow. Roy Charles Amara, a researcher and scientist, once said that “we tend to overestimate the effect of a technology in the short run and underestimate the effect in the long run”. The internet is a case in point. Some of the wilder predictions during the “hype” phase never came to pass. That said, no one can deny how powerfully it has insinuated itself into our daily lives, fundamentally changing how we communicate and process information, and no one can know where it will take us next.
Whether or not we will overestimate distributed ledger technology (DLT) in the short run and underestimate it in the long run remains to be seen. However, I am sure we can agree that DLT currently stands in the limelight. A lot has been said about the potential impact of DLT on the roles and services of central banks. In particular, questions related to whether or not central banks should move central bank money to DLT and whether there is a need for issuing central bank digital currency. Consequently, I think it’s time to frame the discussion. This speech will:
1.outline the ECB’s position on DLT;
2.discuss possible scenarios for adoption; and
3.shed light on the global interaction between central banks in the field of DLT.
Financial innovation transforming market infrastructure services
The internet, mobile phones and tablets have changed the way we communicate, the way we shop, the way we store information – frankly, the way we live. The financial industry is experiencing similar change. We refer to it as FinTech – innovations that could result in new business models or products with disruptive potential in the financial sector. DLT is a focal point in FinTech as its perceived opportunities are the key motivation for market participants, infrastructure providers and central banks to explore the technology.
In our reflections around DLT, we need to bear in mind that the possible impact of DLT depends on how market players ultimately decide to embrace it. In the abstract, three scenarios can be imagined: (i) individual market players try to use DLT mainly to improve their internal efficiency. This would not have large effects on the financial ecosystem; (ii) a group of core market players adopt DLT and gain a critical mass enabling whole market segments to shift to DLT; or (iii) a more revolutionary scenario of a peer-to-peer world without intermediaries emerges. Many discussions around the benefits of DLT had the third scenario in mind, but from what we observe, real use cases on DLT seem to focus mainly on the first and second scenarios.
There is not the shadow of a doubt that the journey has started, but from today’s perspective, it is difficult to assess the magnitude of the impact DLT could have on the financial sector and what the time frame for implementation could be. Some see DLT having substantial impact on the financial ecosystem within the next five to ten years. While I don’t want to join the club of crystal ball gazers, allow me nevertheless to stress that the implementation of a DLT environment may be a multifaceted endeavour. From the experience gained with the implementation of TARGET2-Securities, we are aware that functional, business, harmonisation, governance, legal and regulatory aspects are of key relevance and need to be thoroughly considered.
Embracing change in the financial market infrastructure
Let me start by saying that the exploration of technological innovation is high on the ECB’s strategic agenda. The ECB is always on the lookout for ways to improve the efficiency and lower the costs of its market infrastructure. It considers how best to respond to and take advantage of technical innovation and meet new user needs, while staying ahead of evolving risks such as cyber risk. Work is conducted in close cooperation with the market and revolves around making liquidity management, within the fields of payment transfers, securities settlement and collateral management, more efficient.
Let me illustrate with two examples of how the ECB embraces change. Last year the Eurosystem, which comprises the ECB and the national central banks of the euro area, launched a central bank service called TARGET2-Securities (T2S). Just like DLT, it was called “a game changer”. T2S is changing the European post-trade landscape not only by offering an integrated settlement service in central bank money for securities transactions, but also because it has brought post-trade harmonisation beyond what has been seen before. Together with TARGET2, the Eurosystem’s cash transfer system, T2S forms the cornerstone of financial markets in Europe.
My second example is the strategic reflections on the future of the Eurosystem market infrastructure. Investigative work has started in three key areas: (i) the consolidation of TARGET2 and T2S; (ii) settlement services to support instant payments; and (iii) a Eurosystem collateral management system. Work in those three areas is closely interconnected. It revolves around making liquidity management within the fields of payment transfers, securities settlement and Eurosystem collateral management more efficient. Efficiency and innovation are the drivers for the future market infrastructure.
Use of DLT in market infrastructures operated by central banks
It is important to note that there is no single DLT, that we are speaking of a variety of different fabrics, the design of some solutions being tailored to the specific needs of the financial industry. There is no “single blockchain to rule them all”. The ECB has considered a range of DLT models currently under development. These differ in a number of dimensions, including the way updates are validated, network architecture and permissions, the level of data sharing and replication, and the set of cryptographic tools used to ensure integrity. That said, question marks over implementation remain. There are substantial functional, operational, governance and legal aspects that need to be weighed very carefully before thinking about possible mass adoption in the field of market infrastructure services. Indeed, DLT is still in its relative infancy as a technological development and it is too early to say with any certainty whether and how it could change the financial ecosystem.
It cannot be stressed enough that any technology-based market infrastructure service needs to be mature enough to meet high requirements in terms of safety and efficiency. These requirements are taken very seriously by the ECB, not only in its role as operator but also as one of the European authorities overseeing the safety of financial markets. Against this background, the ECB cannot, at this stage, consider basing our market infrastructure on a DLT solution. However, in its role as operator of TARGET2 and T2S, it remains open to considering innovative solutions in the field of DLT and beyond, if and when such technologies are proven and they are adopted by the users of the Eurosystem infrastructure. With this in mind, and as DLT solutions are constantly evolving, we continue to assess, also through the conduct of practical DLT use cases, whether advances in DLT-based solutions could lead to service levels on a par with or maybe even higher than TARGET2 and T2S. In doing so, we focus on concrete questions (e.g.can today’s liquidity-saving features be offered through smart contracts) in contrast to following a greenfield approach.
In order to lead the way the ECB has engaged in international collaboration. Together with the Bank of Japan, we agreed to launch a joint research project which studies the possible use of DLT for market infrastructure. The project is expected to release its main findings next year. This work can help define how new technologies can change the global financial ecosystem of today and ensure that central banks are adequately prepared.
However, we will certainly keep market developments and market needs in mind. Many players have been vocal on the need for efficient use of central bank money in a DLT environment. Ideas have been sparked and generic concepts are being developed by market players, sometimes in cooperation with central banks, on how to "inject" central bank money into the DLT world.
These initiatives sometimes seem to go beyond the idea of a central bank bringing its settlement services on DLT and maybe they could alter or even call into question the role the central bank currently plays as operator. Some initiatives allocate the role of a "notary" to the central bank – controlling the amount of central bank money circulating in a DLT environment. Others foresee that a trustee ensures that the values circulated in a DLT-based solution are fully backed by a corresponding amount of central bank money held "off-chain". For this discussion, it is important to clarify that a payment can be considered to be in central bank money if – and only if – the beneficiary has a claim on the asset of the central bank – either directly or by means of an explicit commitment of the central bank. Anything else remains commercial bank money regardless of the technology used.
Depending on how potential solutions to bring central bank money onto distributed ledgers are designed, they go beyond functional, operational and legal questions around DLT. They touch upon questions of monetary policy implementation and the role of central banks as infrastructure providers. Against this background, the Eurosystem jointly needs to assess the matter from the various angles as far as it concerns the euro as settlement asset.
The discussion around central bank money on DLT is closely linked to the question of who should have access to such money. Issuing central bank money on a distributed ledger for settlement among current holders of TARGET2 accounts could be done in a way that changes little of how central banks perform their functions. Nevertheless, broadening access, possibly even to the man or woman on the street, is often discussed under the heading “digital central bank currency”. It would change the way different actors interact in financial markets and requires multidisciplinary research. We are considering various facets such as: What should be the features of digital central bank currency (to what extent should it resemble cash, e.g. feature of anonymity)? To what extent should convertibility of digital central bank currency into commercial bank deposits and cash be restricted, if at all? (If conversion were unrestricted, bank runs may evolve faster and impact the funding base of banks.) How would it impact banknote production costs and seigniorage income? How would it impact monetary policy transmission, and what would it mean for (non-standard) monetary policy measures?
Catalyst
This leads me to my last point. Besides the ECB’s role as operator we also act as a catalyst for European market integration.
Financial market integration is high on the agenda of the ECB. Our two market infrastructure platforms – Target2 and T2S – have integrated the financial market substantially and are an essential cornerstone in the Commission’s project to build a capital markets union. With various DLT solutions emerging, there is a risk that this could lead to fragmentation, with new silos established. Therefore, it is of utmost importance to ensure that any services developed are interoperable, not only by ensuring standardisation at the technical level but also by harmonising business and legal domains.
More specifically, we see three layers of harmonisation that are useful to promote integration of financial markets:
Regulatory/legal harmonisationrefers to the need that a common set of rules be applied to the provisions of any given service across jurisdictions, and to the implications that applicable domestic laws can have even on third parties.
Functional harmonisationrefers to the agreement over a set of business rules that allow business to be done across markets, such as market opening times or the set of information to be exchanged when a transaction is processed.
Technical harmonisationrefers to the detailed set of standards to be adopted when carrying out a process, e.g. messaging formats.
Each of these three harmonisation layers requires coordinated efforts among a different set of entities. The ECB, in its catalyst role, will promote innovation by involving all relevant stakeholders and thereby foster change which underpins the safety and efficiency of financial markets. In this vein, it will help facilitate a discussion to ensure that potential DLT-based solutions – of a public or industry nature – are interoperable with other market solutions based on DLT. We believe that it will benefit all prospective users of the technology, since public authorities and market participants agree that the big potential of DLT lies in its network effect.
In addition, within the ECB, we have recently established a DLT task force as part of the post-trade harmonisation agenda within the T2S governance framework. Its objective is to assess the potential impact of DLT on harmonisation, from both the T2S and the wider European perspective, with a view to supporting other T2S governance bodies advising the Eurosystem in this respect. It is vital that such work takes place in the context of T2S to allow proactive collaboration with the market. Facilitating functional harmonisation ex ante – in a coordinated effort with all relevant stakeholders – can ensure that innovations that are proven to be safe can be adopted without harming market integration. Our overriding objective will continue to be fostering integration and avoiding fragmentation.
Conclusion
New technologies will have a profound impact on the financial market. It is essential that these technologies are explored, analysed and tested to ensure that tomorrow’s market infrastructure is not only efficient and innovative but also remains safe and resilient. Exploring the potential of new technologies such as DLT is high on the ECB’s strategic agenda.
To conclude, let me recap a few key points:The ECB considers new technologies as essential to enhancing the efficiency of our market infrastructure. However, it’s time to frame the discussion. I think the potential of DLT in the field of market infrastructures revolves around two fundamental concepts of central bank money on DLT:
First, can central bank settlement services themselves be operated in a DLT environment? Today, DLT is not ready for mass adoption and not sufficiently mature for use in our central bank market infrastructures (given the high requirements of safety and efficiency). Future use needs to be explored, and this is what we are doing based on concrete use cases (i.e. can DLT meet the TARGET2/T2S service levels). As new technologies don’t stop at borders, we have furthermore decided to cooperate with the Bank of Japan to explore the potential future use of DLT for central banking services in a more global context.
Second, how could a central bank interface and interoperate with DLT-based settlement services which are not necessarily offered by the central bank itself? For example, it needs to be assessed whether “a central bank could inject and control the amount of central bank money circulating in a DLT environment”. Or whether, for example, a private sector trustee could ensure that the values circulated in a DLT-based solution are fully backed by a corresponding amount of central bank money held "off-chain”. Such concepts could alter the existing central bank role as operator and impact monetary policy implementation. Therefore, joint analysis by the Eurosystem will be required.
We are on a journey which could radically alter the financial ecosystem as we know it. The ECB is committed to be part of this journey.（完）